📌 COIN – Stablecoin Regulation & Re-valuation Thesis (Updated 2025-07-06)
1️⃣ What the Company Does
Coinbase operates the largest regulated U.S. crypto exchange and the on-/off-ramp for USD stablecoin USDC. Businesses also include institutional custody, staking, and a fast-growing payments API.
2️⃣ Recent Fundamentals
| Metric |
Q1-25 |
YoY |
Highlights |
| Total Revenue |
$2.0 B :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3} |
+31 % |
Trading rev $1.3 B; Subscriptions $0.7 B |
| Net Income |
$66 M |
+ n/a |
Swing back to profitability |
| Adj. EBITDA |
$930 M |
+193 % |
Stablecoin interest + Coinbase One |
Net cash $6.5 B; no debt.
3️⃣ Why Pick It Now
- GENIUS Act cleared Senate; House vote expected late Sep → legal clarity for USDC settlements.
- Stablecoin float earns T-bill yield > 4 %.
- Rising crypto volumes as BTC re-tests $90 k.
4️⃣ Catalysts
- House passage & Fed pilot (Q4-25).
- Shopify + Amazon USDC checkout beta (rumoured).
- S&P 500 inclusion watch (m-cap > $80 B).
5️⃣ Trade Plan
- Entry zone: $280–295 (post-pull-back).
- Price target: $360 (12 wk) / $420 (Dec House + holiday volume).
- Stop: close < $250.
Option Structure
Diagonal: Long Oct 17 25 $310 Call / Short Dec 19 25 $340 Call for net ≈ $18.00.